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Don Day Wyoming Weather Forecast: Friday, July 16, 2021

by smart

welcome to friday july 16 2021 well as we head into this upcoming weekend and the middle part of july the heat is going to return hot temperatures especially for those of you who are listening or watching this podcast in northern wyoming montana the western dakotas idaho well be ready for the heat high pressure is going to expand we’re going to see high pressure nose northward into the northern rockies all the way up into south central canada for about a five day period and that’s going to bring some oppressive heat to those northern areas it’s going to be the north montana northern wyoming idaho the southern areas of saskatchewan and alberta manitoba and western north and south dakota that’s where the hot weather is going to be however it’s not going to be a high pressure ridge that’s going to be lasting terribly long it will break down we’re still going to have some thunderstorms possible this will be especially true in southern wyoming utah colorado arizona new mexico monsoonal moisture is still there in those areas so with daytime heating late day thunderstorms are still going to be around just like they have all week monsoon watch we’re going to continue to keep an eye in the long term going out further 10 to 14 days to see what will happen and we’ll update you on that as we get to the end of the podcast here’s today’s thunderstorm threat anywhere you see the light shading that means a general thunderstorm in your area that darker green that extends from the western dakotas through western nebraska eastern colorado western kansas here there’s going to be some thunderstorms here that are going to be producing some heavy rain and hail hail especially it’s been a week where these thunderstorms in the region if you’ve been under one you’ve probably gotten a pretty heavy downpour you probably have also picked up a little bit of hail as well this is the precipitation forecast through sunday afternoon and you can see a lot of gray and green there that’s basically where it’s showing the better chances for showers and thunderstorms notice all the green across colorado new mexico arizona parts of utah there and then the area of enhanced green right here this is a lot of thunderstorm activity that’s actually going to be happening later today and tonight and in this area in eastern colorado and western kansas as well general isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be noted elsewhere now i wanted to kind of give you an update you know we’ve had a la nina season and a lot of times what will happen historically in la nina’s is la nina’s tend to produce higher than normal amounts of tornado activity and to give you an example you see this dash blue line there was a very strong la nina 2011 and 2012. we talked about that la nina quite a bit that was one of the highest counts of tornadoes on records across the united states but look where we are right now this is the tornado count it’s at 760 across the united states so far this season which is well below the normal line this is basically this black line here is your average tornado count throughout the the course of the year but you can see we have not had thankfully this is a good thing we haven’t had the number of tornadoes you would expect in a la nina year now a lot of folks are saying why is it it’s a la nina but why isn’t that happening well it has a lot to do with how cold it’s been relative to average in the south central and southeastern united states these are the temperatures relative to normal since the last 60 days so going to the last 60 days the south central and southeast united states has been cooler than average now all of the news you’ve been hearing about the heat has been out west and for good reason it has been really hot but it’s been remarkably and steadily cooler than average in the south and the contrast when fronts and systems come in like this is just not there so you don’t tend to see the bigger more severe thunderstorms that produce those tornado outbreaks and so as long as that trend continues our tornado season will be a below average one now let’s go back to the heat this is the upper level pattern at 18 000 feet we call it the 500 millibar chart that i show you so much of high pressure gets centered right over northwest colorado and the wasatch front and notice the pink the pink color is getting all the way up into south central canada so we’re going to see some really hot weather here and as we go through sunday and into early next week the heat is going to be on the north end of the high right under and on the northern extent of the high pressure ridge these are forecasted high temperatures relative to average for monday afternoon so relative to normal it’s going to really burn up in montana all of montana central and northern and western wyoming into north dakota you know this is the areas where it’s really really going to swelter the most relative to average but look at this much cooler than average just to the south that dipole that that big contrast between the warm and the cold right here continues to be something we’ve seen all summer season so that’s where the heat is going to be now this is by next friday notice the ridge gets cut off if you go back to here notice how the ridge bulges all the way up north but by late next week it gets cut off flattened out and the high pressure ridge begins its move to the east and the clockwise flow starts to bring that subtropical moisture back into the region by the middle to the end of next week and by next sunday and monday the high pressure continues to migrate further east into kansas and oklahoma so that door going back to our monsoon watch that door basically swings open and allows that subtropical moisture to come on in also you’re gonna have little disturbances right along the jet stream here that’ll help trigger bring in stability and get those showers and thunderstorms going this was a comment off our youtube page i like this from m.e i hope we get that monsoon soon well let’s go into that monsoon update right here so i’m going to step forward over the next seven to ten days this is the precipitable water forecast for sunday so you anywhere you see white or brown white means average amounts of precipitable water brown means drier air not much going on so you can see across the intermountain west here the white and the and the brown well you’re gonna get a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity in this area here but not a lot notice the blue that’s where you’re talking about 200 plus percent of normal of precipitable water even a pink right here near the western areas of nevada you know when you start talking pink you’re talking 300 percent of average well so for the weekend and into early next week the deeper subtropical moisture is down here in the desert southwest looking into california you’re going to get some thunderstorms that will produce rain in the sierras that’ll be good also you’re going to get some more rain in arizona and parts of southwest utah look at this this is sunday this is thursday sunday thursday what’s really encouraging is this blue right here because parts of southwestern wyoming eastern idaho and northern utah are under the deeper moisture and when you get thunderstorms not everybody under the colors gets rain here but the thunderstorms that develop you’re talking about the type that produce measurable rain beneficial rains so yellowstone park jackson wyoming salt lake city evanston rock springs green river pinedale big piney into the lander riverton areas and up into the bighorn mountains you’re going to start to see by the second half of next week those better rain producing thunderstorms coming this is by sunday it starts to arch more eastward and get east of the continental divide as we get out to 10 days so you’re going to be looking at areas along and east of the divide in wyoming in colorado start and even montana the dakotas by late next week and early next week start to get into those showers and thunderstorms again look at 300 percent of normal right there now notice we’ve got a little bit of a drier air mass coming in kind of in the arizona southern california area so the axis of deeper moisture actually gets shifted nor northward out of the desert states more towards the central and northern rockies so the computer modeling continues to see that and that’s something we need to keep an eye on i haven’t showed you a sea surface temperature map in a while i wanted to show you a few things notice the sea surface temperatures out here in the subtropical pacific still have pockets of coolness next to pockets of warmness along the equator but still a large body of water in the pacific is still cooler than average again we’re not officially in a la nina however next week i’m going to show you some long-range productions for sea surface temperatures that shows us that we’re probably not done with la nina folks at least as we head into the fall area another thing i want to show you is the sea surface temperatures off the west coast of mexico for the most part remain a little bit above average for those of you that watched our monsoon video on the day weather youtube channel we talked about how important those sea surface temperatures are in the gulf of california and off the southwest coast of mexico those warmer than average sea surface temperatures suggest that the subtropical flow of moisture is still looking better than it did last year coming on in notice the blue in the gulf of mexico this is pretty interesting now we’ve got warm waters in the atlantic we’ve really seen the tropical activity drop off we think it’s going to come back but having these cooler temperatures in the gulf of mexico could play a role later in the hurricane season that’s something that we’re going to keep an eye on for you tropical watchers have yourself a great weekend everybody be ready for the heat watch out for a few thunderstorms we’ll see you on monday


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Don Day Wyoming Weather Forecast: Friday, July 16, 2021
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